A Stream of Consciousness

explain this original text

(1) All stores of value are in essence competing for the same finite base of liquidity (bonds, equities, commodities, reserve currencies, etc.)

(2) Bitcoin (and potentially Ethereum) have already been the most “cleared” from a governmental perspective (as a commodity) and has been touted for a decade as a reserve currency that provides a safe haven for the fiat printers going brr

(3) The base of the US governmental and economic system has always been public-private partnership to outperform other systems

(4) My sense is that the political sphere (on both sides of the aisles) are aware of the difficult “gridlock” that has occurred with governmental debt and both parties are now in a prisoner’s dillema situation
where discussing the “unfunded liabilities” of social security and medicare are outside the overton window for political discourse since any party that states that it wants to reduce the unfunded liabilities risks losing in elections to the other side

(5) That the current govermental-legal system and participants will become more and more aware that unlimited printing and debt accrual is likely not a sustainable path
I believe this will look similar to the “change in attitudes” that occurred for Climate Change

  • Many naysayers to start, and then a “gradual then sudden changing of the winds” in human consciousness

  • While some may say “competition with the US is BAD” (in an encumbent monopolistic sense), soon I believe people and politicians will say “okay this debt is getting too out of control and we are willing to try more things to address this issue.”

  • Note: the counterargument to this (posed by Chamath in All In Podcast) is that all of these analyses lead to a relative analysis (in an “all roads leave to Rome” sense similar to point (1) above where all liquidity leads to the US over all other systems of government and money)

  • And there is no other system and reserve currency that outperforms the US

  • While I do not disagree with Chamath’s point, it essentially serves as a calling card intro for any participant who wants to enter into the foray of “relative honest competition of systems for stable value and economic growth”

  • Finally, some have made the argument that the world’s demand from economies, nations, and businesses for a “safe haven currency,” is a burden of responsibility placed on the US

  • Picture an “Atlas Grandpa” holding the weight of the world to provide a stable currency that others can trust to store value:

  • from one perspective it allows the grandpa to print indefinitely
    (which could viewed as as singular privilege)

  • and from another perspective, the US/FED are forced to provide liquidity in times of crisis when choosing between financial collapse (”too big to fail” or “systematically important”) or providing more liquidity via more printing and debt
    (which could viewed as as singular burden of responsibility)

  • In either case, other “trusted, safe stores of value” help to address both issues: (1) alternative options for liquid stores of value address the privilege of singular monopolization and indiscriminate printing and collective debt accrual and (2) alternative options for liquid stores of value to help ease the burden of singular responsibility

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